Weekly global protein digest: China to purchase 19% less beef in '23, Australian beef supplies increasing


Jim Wyckoff, Commentary, The Cattle Site

16 September 2022


Analyst Jim Wyckoff shares an update on the US futures market, USDA reports and global protein news.


Latest week’s USDA export sales for U.S. pork, beef


After a multi-week absence, USDA today released its weekly U.S. export sales report. Here are the latest week’s figures for pork and beef.


Pork: Net sales of 25,100 MT for 2022 primarily for Mexico (9,900 MT, including decreases of 200 MT), China (4,700 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Japan (4,700 MT), the Dominican Republic (1,600 MT), and Colombia (900 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions for Chile (100 MT). Exports of 23,900 MT were primarily to Mexico (11,000 MT), Japan (4,100 MT), China (3,500 MT), South Korea (1,700 MT), and Colombia (1,100 MT).


Beef: Net sales of 15,100 MT for 2022 primarily for South Korea (6,700 MT, including decreases of 1,200 MT), Japan (4,200 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Mexico (1,700 MT), Ecuador (1,700 MT), and Canada (500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), were offset by reductions primarily for China (1,000 MT). Net sales of 900 MT for 2023 were for Japan (700 MT) and South Korea (200 MT). Exports of 15,200 MT were primarily to Japan (4,600 MT), South Korea (3,800 MT), China (2,600 MT), Mexico (1,000 MT), and Hong Kong (800 MT).


Update on this week’s China pork sales


China will sell 15,000 MT of frozen pork stocks from state reserves on Sept. 17. We reported the second batch of pork sales yesterday, though no date or tonnage were provided at that time. Last week China sold 37,000 MT of state-owned pork stocks.


US food prices continue to climb


Part of the US consumer price index report shows the past month prices for a range of goods and services remained much higher than a year earlier, the figures show. A jump in grocery prices is pinching consumers. Some food items: Prices for cereals and bakery products rose 1.2% in August and are up 16.4% over the past 12 months. Dairy products rose 0.3% but are still up 16.2% over the past year. Dairy costs had risen 1.7% in both June and July. Beef prices increased 0.8% in August, while the price of eggs rose 2.9% and are up 39.8% over the past year (see charts). Fruits and vegetables rose 0.5%.


China to release additional pork from reserves


China will release a second batch of pork from state-owned reserves, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said, hoping to temper or stabilize pork prices ahead of holidays. Chinese pork prices were up 0.4% in August compared with July. The agency sold 37,700 tonnes of pork from state reserves on Sept. 8, but there was no tonnage given in media reports about the latest release.


China to purchase 19% less beef from world markets next year


China’s economy continues to struggle under strict Covid-19 prevention measures, USDA said. That’s likely to hit hard meatpackers in Brazil, the top beef supplier to China. Beef markets have been in turmoil since the pandemic disrupted supply chains and sent prices soaring.


China will ensure ‘reasonable’ pork, hog prices


China’s state planner said the country’s supply of hogs was sufficient and would increase toward the end of the year, guaranteeing pork prices would stay in a “reasonable” range. The National Development and Reform Commission also said it would take measures to ensure that hog prices remained reasonable, after they surged in recent months.


USDA reopens comment period on poultry growing tournament systems


The Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) has briefly reopened the public comment period on its advanced notice of proposed rulemaking (ANPR) covering poultry growing tournament systems that was published June 8. The proposed rule had a comment deadline of Sept. 6, but AMS is reopening the comment period through Sept. 26, according to a notice in the Federal Register. The revision came after AMS received requests from industry organizations for additional time to comment on the plan “citing the breadth and complexity of the questions and concepts presented for comment.”


Australian beef supplies to increase ...


USDA annual report on China livestock ...


China pork imports expected to decline in 2023 ...


Weekly USDA dairy report ...