Genesus Global Market Report

Canada - September 2022

 

Spencer Long of Genesus

Sep 14, 2022

Canadaís Prime Minister Justin Trudeauís Liberal government's online consultation on the proposed 30% reduction of emissions on fertilizer closed at the end of August. This was an opportunity for people to share what they thought of the proposed plan. The people that actually farm the land and donít have cushy government jobs that let them sit at home in their pajamas all day or those who willingly live in downtown Toronto and gladly buy $10 cups of coffee were in large part against the proposal. Farmers are the ones who provide food for the whole world and know whatís best. The Trudeau Liberals have said repeatedly that the 30% reduction in emissions on fertilizer by 2030 is a target and wonít be mandated. This government has lied so many times that itís hard to believe them, they could flip on it tomorrow and display no shame. Their politicians; they say it wonít be mandated until they decide it will be mandated. This proposal is not only idiotic itís flat-out dangerous in an ever-increasing world population and an even faster-growing world middle-class population that increasingly desires meat, reducing crop yields isnít rational and wonít meet the increased demand. It is widely stated by experts that global food production has to increase by 60-70% from current levels in order to meet world food demand in 2050. Canada has a huge opportunity and responsibility to grow further in agriculture to help feed the world even more and this government shouldnít be trying to prevent that. Hopefully, Trudeau and his Liberal government will come to their senses and realize how irresponsible this proposed plan is.

Wheat production in Canada is set to rebound in a big way following last yearís drought in the prairies. Favorable conditions have enabled Canadaís wheat crop to look very strong. The forecasted production for 2022-23 is a 55% increase over last years to 34.6 million tonnes (38.14 million tons). It would be the third largest wheat crop in Canadian history if it comes to fruition. The biggest challenge for Canada will be shipping this wheat across the country as the rail system had issues moving a much smaller crop last year. Canada is projected to harvest its largest corn crop this year at 14.828 million tonnes (16.341 million tons). In Ontario which faced a dry summer, the forecasted corn bushels/acre is down slightly but total production is expected to be the largest ever at 9.804 million tonnes (10.808 million tons) due to a larger planted area.

Over the last 10 years, pork consumption in Canada has declined by nearly 8 lbs. per person. Since 2001 pork consumption per person has declined 22 lbs. This is troubling and not on a good trajectory for our industry. Why is pork consumption decreasing? Meat consumption in Canada is growing overall but pork has continuously been going down for some time now and doesnít seem to be stopping. Canada exports 70% of its pork production, will that number increase even further if consumption continues declining? Is the product that we produce as an industry taste like so much junk that people would rather not eat pork? The reality is this continued decline doesnít seem to be stopping anytime soon unless we do something different. Producing pork that can deliver a better eating experience is something we at Genesus believe is extremely important and for the last 24 years have done the work on our Jersey Red Durocs to make it the best-tasting pork in the world. We strongly believe that if we can produce pork that people actually want to eat that they will buy more. People desire meat, they will pay lots of money for it as shown in the beef price. As an industry, we must do something different in order to ensure our future. Canada is growing, the world is growing, why canít our industry grow and prosper alongside it? The world needs more food, pork should be at the forefront of this as itís the most consumed meat globally.

 

Sources:

https://agriculture.canada.ca/en/canadas-agriculture-sectors/crops/reports-and-statistics-data-canadian-principal-field-crops/canada-outlook-principal-field-crops-2022-08-22

https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/feeding-the-world-in-2050-and-beyond-part-1

https://www.ibisworld.com/ca/bed/per-capita-pork-consumption/15052/

https://www.syngenta.ca/market-news/large-canadian-corn--soy-crops-on-the-way

https://www.world-grain.com/articles/17394-canadian-wheat-output-expected-to-soar-in-2022-23

 

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