In this file:


·         Rabobank predicts global pork trade to pick up soon

·         The global pork market: trade looks up, but enduring issues limit market growth

·         Rabobank: Global Pork Quarterly Q3 2022: ASF, Inflation, and Policies Challenge Growth While Trade Prospects Rise



Rabobank predicts global pork trade to pick up soon


By Amber Weaver, RFD-TV

July 29th 2022


Global pork trade should be picking up soon.


The latest Rabobank Quarterly Pork Report shows the easing of feed costs and continuing consumer demand improving the market. That improvement will be led by China, which continues to stockpile pork as COVID restrictions are let down and prices increase.


Challenges including African Swine Fever and inflation are still present though and will impact trade policies.


document, plus video report [0:25 min.]



The global pork market: trade looks up, but enduring issues limit market growth


By Meghan Taylor, Pig World (UK)

July 28, 2022  


The latest Rabobank quarterly pork report suggest that global trade should pick up in the latter half of 2022, though African swine fever (ASF) and rising inflation continue to challenge the industry.


Global pork trade declined in the first half of 2022, as import demands from China reduced, trade policy, shipping, and disease issues arose, and pork supply in exporting countries pulled back.


China’s slowing import demands led to a 65% reduction in the country’s import numbers year-on-year. During the period of January to April 2021 China imported just shy of 1.5 million tons of pork, compared to the same period for 2022, when the import figures only just topped 450,000 tons.


The UK’s January to April import figures rose 27% year-on-year, as did the figures for South Korea (38%), Mexico (31%), and Japan (12%).


Presently, Rabobank expect Chinese imports to pick up, as the country’s Covid restrictions have eased and the pork prices have increased – lending itself to increased imports. Nonetheless, Rabobank expects China’s imports to be down 25 to 35% at the close of the year.


ASF outbreaks in Eastern (Germany-Poland border) and Western (French and Dutch borders) Europe have disrupted the European market, with an oversupply of certain products putting pressure on pork prices.


In Asia, ASF is threatening localised production and prices. In Thailand, ASF could reduce the pork supply by over 35% in 2022 – according to a USDA estimate; in Vietnam and the Philippines, ASF remains rampant; and China is still seeing sporadic outbreaks.


However, Rabobank’s research shows that consumer demand is proving resilient in most regions...


more, including infographic map



Global Pork Quarterly Q3 2022: ASF, Inflation, and Policies Challenge Growth While Trade Prospects Rise


Source: Rabobank

July 2022


Global pork trade should pick up in the second half of 2022. A slight easing of feed costs and resilient consumer demand are improving market prospects. Still, challenges to growth remain as African swine fever continues to spread and inflation impacts trade policies.


Feed and energy costs are offering a break, but not quite relief. Feed input prices have softened in some markets but are expected to stay relatively strong for the rest of 2022. This will lessen the pressure on producers to some extent. However, price volatility in grains and oilseeds will bring extra management risks and challenges.


Consumer demand remains mixed. Demand remains strong in North America and is improving in the EU, a reflection of seasonal movement more than a structural change. Japan, South Korea, and some other Asian countries, however, expect weaker demand in 2H due to rising inflation concerns, the slowing economy, and ongoing Covid risks. China’s pork market is still subject to uncertainty around Covid policy measures, which led to a marked decline in foodservice in 1H, but is looking more positive for 2H. In Brazil, producers and processors are finding it difficult to pass on all the additional costs to consumers.


Global pork trade in 2H 2022 is expected to pick up from the low level in 1H, mainly due to the expected rise in import demand from China. Pork prices in China have increased greatly in the past month and are expected to stay high in 2H, which supports imports. Other traditional importing countries, such as Japan, also expect imports to remain firm.


These are the main highlights:


China: Hog prices are surging due to tight supply and demand improvement. Policies are being introduced to stabilize prices and control inflation.


Europe: Pig prices are supported by tighter supply and summer demand. Europe diversifies its exports as volumes to China remain low.


North America: Producers remain profitable on hog market strength and lower feed costs. Demand remains stable  but is expected to weaken as the economy slows.


Brazil: Farming margins are improving but still face challenges. Exports remain under pressure with a drop of 9.8% YTD.


Southeast Asia: Pork prices have been rising in Vietnam due to tight supply. Imports are expected to increase in 2H.


Japan: High prices are slowing domestic pork consumption. Pork imports remain strong.


document, plus full report (for clients)