In this file:


·         Corn Closes Above $7

·         The Soy Market Drops on Week’s Start



Corn Closes Above $7


 Alan Brugler, Barchart

Jun 21, 2022


The domestic corn market fell out of the 3-day holiday weekend with sharp losses that took Sep – July ’23 below the $7 mark. Prices firmed up later to settle above the mark, but the board still went home 3-4% in the red. Red December was also down hard on the day, but closed with a 2.6% loss to $6.28.


Weekly new crop data from NASS had planting pace unreported, insinuating its completion. National corn emergence was 95% as of 6/19. That matches the 5-yr average pace. Corn conditions worsened 3 points to a Brugler500 score of 376. North Carolina was the worst from week to wee dropping 41 points to a 330 on the Brugler500 Index. PA conditions are now the highest and the only reported state above 400, after IA dropped 4 points to 399. TX conditions improved through the week, but they are still the lowest at 295 on the Brugler500.


Crop Progress data had sorghum planting at 80% complete as of 6/19. That is up from 66% last week, but still behind the 85% average pace. The crop was rated 46% good/ex by NASS, which converts to a Brugler500 score of 329 – even with last week.


Barchart adjusted their corn production forecast by lifting output 298 mbu to 14.504 bbu. That came on a 580k acre boost to 82.2m harvested. Yields were bumped higher to 176.4 bpa. At the state level, the cmdtyView Corn Yield for NE was 181.5. IA is seen as the highest with 201 bpa along with a 195.7 bpa IL forecast.


USDA reported corn shipments were 1.184 MMT during the week of 6/16. That was down from 1.22 MMT during the prior week and compared to 1.775 MMT inspected during the same week last year. MYTD corn shipments were pegged at 46.16 MMT down from 56 MMT last season.


Agroconsult estimated the Brazilian 2nd crop corn output at 89.3 MMT, up from 87.6 MMT.


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The Soy Market Drops on Week’s Start


 Alan Brugler, Barchart

Jun 21, 2022


Soybean futures faded 16 to 28 cents on the day in the front months. Red November contracts were bought into the close, ending 21 3/4 off the low for a nickel loss to $13.96 1/2. Meal futures also faded on Tuesday, going home $5.90 to $6.60/ton lower in the front months. Soybean oil prices ended with 0.5% to 0.9% losses of as much as 67 points for the front months.


NASS Crop Progress data showed 94% of the 22/23 soybean crop was planted as of 6/19. That is up from 88% last week and now 1ppt ahead of the average pace. Emergence was at 83%, compared to 70% last week and 84% on average. NASS conditions were 68% good/ex for a Brugler500 score of 371. That was down from 375 nationally last week. IL, MI, and NC were down the most from the week prior with KS, MN, MI, ND, and SD showing minor improvements. Converted NASS scores showed AR, IA, and WI at the top each with over 390 on the Brugler500 Index.


Barchart adjusted their 22/23 soy production outlook with a 72 mbu increase to 4.515 bbu. That came on a 100k harvest acre boost and a 0.74 bpa bump to 50.23 bpa. At the state level, cmdtyView Bean Yield had NE soybeans at 56.79 bpa, IA at 56.3 bpa, and IL as the highest with 58.3 bpa. At the bottom, ND is estimated at 34.5 bpa.


The weekly Export Inspections report had 427,344 MT of soybean shipments from the week of 6/16. That was down from 608k MT the previous week, but was more than double the same week last year. USDA had the season’s pace at 50.9 MMT through 6/16, compared to 57.25k MT during the same week last year.


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