World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

(WASDE)

 

Source: USDA AMS, FSA, ERS, FAS

May 12, 2022 

 

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Total U.S. red meat and poultry production for 2023 is

forecast below 2022, as lower beef production more than offsets higher pork and poultry production.

 

For 2023, beef production is forecast lower with expected declines in both fed and non-fed cattle

supplies. Pork production is forecast higher with increased farrowings and continued growth in

productivity. Higher forecast broiler production reflects moderating feed costs and improved

productivity. Turkey production is projected higher as the sector recovers from the 2022 Highly

Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks. Egg production is likewise forecast higher with postHPAI flock rebuilding.

 

Total red meat and poultry production forecasts for 2022 are raised from last month. Higher beef and

broiler production more than offset a reduction in pork and turkey production. Beef production is

raised, with more cattle placed in feedlots sooner than normally expected due to drought conditions,

supporting higher annual fed cattle slaughter. Additionally, cow slaughter is forecast higher. Pork

production is reduced on lighter expected carcass weights. Based on recent slaughter and hatchery

data, the broiler production forecast is raised while the turkey production forecast is lowered. Egg

production is lowered on reduced expected laying flocks.

 

For 2023, beef exports are down from 2022 on lower beef production and higher prices. Beef imports

are lower on tight global supplies. Pork imports are slightly higher compared to 2022 and exports are

slightly lower. Broiler exports are forecast higher on increased production and lower prices, and

turkey exports are forecast slightly higher on increased supplies and a resumption of pre-HPAI trade

patterns.

 

For 2022, beef and broiler exports are raised while pork and turkey exports are lowered based on

recent trade data.

 

For 2023, cattle prices are forecast above 2022 on tighter supplies. Hog, broiler, and turkey prices

are forecast lower with increased production. The egg price is forecast lower with higher expected

production.

 

The 2022 cattle price forecast is raised on recent data and tighter expected fed cattle supplies later in

the year. Hog prices are lowered on prices to date and weaker demand, while broiler and turkey

prices are raised on stronger prices to date and continued demand strength.

 

COARSE GRAINS: The 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, domestic use, exports,

ending stocks, and higher prices. The corn crop is projected at 14.5 billion bushels, down 4.3 percent

from last year. The corn yield is projected at 177.0 bushels per acre, 4.0 bushels below the weather

adjusted trend presented at USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum in February. The very slow start to

this year’s planting in the major corn producing States and the likelihood that progress by mid-May

will remain well behind normal reduce yield prospects. Despite beginning stocks that are up relative

to a year ago, total corn supplies are forecast to decline 2.7 percent to 15.9 billion bushels.

 

Total U.S. corn use in 2022/23 is forecast to fall 2.5 percent on declines in domestic use and exports.

 

Food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use is virtually unchanged at 6.8 billion bushels. Corn used for

ethanol is unchanged relative to a year ago on expectations of flat U.S. motor gasoline consumption.

 

Sorghum FSI is unchanged but higher than the minimum seen in recent years as China is expected

to continue to source sorghum from other exporters in addition to the United States. Corn feed and

residual use is down 4.9 percent relative to a year ago, reflecting a smaller crop, higher expected

season-average farm prices received by producers, and a decline in grain consuming animal units.

 

U.S. corn exports are forecast to decline 4.0 percent in 2022/23 as lower supplies and robust

domestic demand limit prospects. Even with record exports projected for Argentina and Brazil, a

550-million-bushel drop in exports for Ukraine due to the ongoing conflict is the primary catalyst for a

decline in world trade. With expectations of robust global demand in the face of high prices, the U.S.

share of global corn trade is up slightly relative to a year ago.

 

With total U.S. corn supply falling more than use, 2022/23 U.S. ending stocks are down 80 million

bushels from last year. Stocks relative to use at 9.3 percent would be below a year ago and lower

than the 14.4 percent average seen during 2015/16 to 2019/20. The season-average corn price

received by producers is projected at $6.75 per bushel, up 85 cents from a year ago and if realized

the highest since $6.89 reached during 2012/13.

 

The global coarse grain outlook for 2022/23 is for lower production and use, and smaller ending

stocks. World corn production is forecast to decline from last year’s record high, mostly reflecting

reductions for Ukraine, the United States, the EU, and China that are partially offset by increases for

Brazil, Argentina, Serbia, and South Africa. World corn use is expected to decline 1.2 percent, with

foreign consumption down 0.9 percent. World corn imports are projected to fall 2.3 percent, with the

largest year-over-year declines for China, Canada, the EU, Brazil, and the United Kingdom. Notable

increases in corn imports include Vietnam, Iran, and Bangladesh. Global corn ending stocks are

down 1.4 percent to 305.1 million tons, mostly reflecting expected declines for China and the United

States that are partially offset by increases for Brazil, Serbia, and Ukraine.

 

For China, total coarse grain imports for 2022/23 are forecast at 37.9 million tons, down 5.0 million

from a year ago and below the record 50.5 million reached during 2020/21. China’s internal market

prices for energy feedstuffs remain higher than the world market, despite a surge in prices among

major exporting countries. Corn imports are expected to decline 5.0 million tons to 18.0 million with a

decline in imports from Ukraine. Barley imports are projected at 10.0 million tons and sorghum at 9.5

million.

 

entire report [pdf]

https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/wasde0522.pdf