African swine fever vaccine closer to reality

Hog Outlook: Help is on the horizon for U.S. producers as a Vietnamese company takes a vaccine to commercial production.


Kevin Schulz, National Hog Farmer

May 09, 2022


A lot has been said and written about African swine fever, both from its rampant spread across central Europe and Asia, to the economic impact it would have on the U.S. pork industry and the entire ag economy.


To say an ASF outbreak in the U.S. swine herd would be devastating is an understatement. If ASF were to hit the U.S. swine herd, international markets would immediately close to U.S. pork.


An Iowa State University study looks at two scenarios of ASF hitting the nation’s herd — one where the country is unable to eliminate the disease over a 10-year period, and the other operates under the assumption that the disease is under control and the country’s pork products can reenter export markets within two years.


Under both scenarios, the study shows U.S. live hog prices would decline by 40% to 50%. In the two-year scenario, the industry faces a period of large financial losses, but is back in the export markets before significant downsizing begins. Pork industry revenue losses add up to $15 billion in the two-year scenario, and a little over $50 billion in the all-years scenario...


Help on the way? ...