EU Meat Market Outlook: Sustainability Issues to Hamper Production - IndexBox
The EU meat and poultry market is forecast to stagnate in the upcoming decade due to changes in consumption patterns and lower production to improve sustainability. Recovering pork supply in China will restrain EU meant export growth.
Source: IndexBox, Inc.
via GlobeNewswire - January 12, 2022
LOS ANGELES, Jan. 12, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- EU meat and poultry market will stagnate in coming years, according to a new report by IndexBox. While global meat consumption is projected to grow at an average annual rate of +1.4% thanks to rising incomes in developing countries, the EU per capita meat consumption is forecast to decline slightly from 68kg in 2022 to 67.5kg per person in 2025.
Shifts in consumption patterns towards lower beef and pork intake constitute the principal factor shaping market stagnation. From the supply side, cattle herds are to be cut in a struggle with climate change, and this could also limit growth opportunities because the EU market is buoyed by domestic production. Even rising demand for poultry and sheep meat will be insufficient to offset the total market dynamic.
Consumers are paying more attention to production process sustainability, especially animal welfare and environmental footprint; therefore, the organic meat segment is growing. As for meat substitutes, lab meat is not expected to become a competitor to animal-based meat because of low consumer acceptance and the high production cost. Plant-based meat alternatives held a market share of around 1% of total meat sales in 2020 and will not significantly expand in the next five years.
Compared with the 2019-2021 average, beef production in 2022 is forecast to decline by -1.4% to 6.8M tonnes due to herds reducing by -3.3% to 30.7M heads. Pork production will decrease by -1% to 23.5M tonnes, while chicken meat production will increase by +0.6% to 13.7M tonnes. In 2022, sheep meat production will slightly drop by -0.5% to 637K tonnes, but from 2023, it will rise steadily, reaching 648K tonnes by 2025.
By 2031, the market share for EU exports in global trade will decline from 20% to 17% due to decreasing pig meat exports to Asia as China aims to revive its domestic herds by 2026 and will thus require fewer imports. In 2020, 16M tonnes of meat and poultry were exported, worth $46.4B.
Meat and Poultry Exports in the EU
The amount of meat and poultry exported in the EU totaled 16M tonnes in 2020, remaining constant against the previous year. In value terms, meat and poultry exports were estimated at $46.4B.
The most significant shipments were from the Netherlands (3M tonnes), Spain (2.6M tonnes), Germany (2.4M tonnes) and Poland (2.2M tonnes), together resulting in 63% of the total volume. It was distantly followed by Belgium (1.4M tonnes), Denmark (1.3M tonnes) and France (1M tonnes), together generating a 22% share of total exports.
In value terms, the largest meat and poultry supplying countries in the EU were the Netherlands ($8.7B), Spain ($8B) and Germany ($7B), with a combined 51% share of total exports.
The meat and poultry export price in the EU stood at $2,839 per tonne in 2020, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. Major exporters recorded the following prices: in Spain ($3,077 per tonne) and the Netherlands ($2,909 per tonne), while Poland ($2,282 per tonne) and Belgium ($2,286 per tonne) were amongst the lowest. In 2020, the Netherlands attained the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.
IndexBox is a market research firm developing an AI-driven market intelligence platform that helps business analysts find actionable insights and make data-driven decisions. The platform provides data on consumption, production, trade, and prices for more than 10K+ different products across 200 countries.
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Companies Mentioned in the Report
JBS USA Holdings Inc., Tyson Foods Inc., Cargill Meat Solutions Corp., SYSCO Corp., Smithfield Foods Inc., Hormel Foods Corp., National Beef Packing Co. LLC, Perdue Farms Inc., OSI Group LLC, ConAgra Foods Inc., Sanderson Farms Inc., American Foods Group LLC, Koch Foods LLC, Keystone Foods LLC, Oscar Mayer, Kraft Heinz Co., Foster Farms, Mountaire Farms Inc., Wayne Farms LLC, Greater Omaha Packing, Seaboard Foods LLC, Butterball LLC, Fresh Mark Inc., Boar's Head Provisions Co. Inc., House of Raeford Farms Inc., George's Inc., CTI Foods LLC, Peco Foods Inc., Wolverine Packing Co., Fieldale Farms Corp., Indiana Packers Corp., Johnsonville Sausage LLC, Kenosha Beef International Ltd, OK Foods, a Bachoco Co., Simmons Prepared Foods, Agri Beef Co., BHJ A/S, Biegi Foods GmbH, Cranswick Plc, Dat Schaub AB, Dawn Farm Foods Ltd, Dawnmeats, Del Torrione, Direct Table Foods Limited, Ifantis S.A., James T Blakeman Ltd, Kleinemas, Kookaburra, L. Richeldi, Lazzeri Alessandro S.r.l, Ludwig Bierhalter GmbH, Noel Alimentaria S.A.U., Persoon Vleeswaren BV, Perutnina Ptuj d.d, Polskamp, R.C.A. S.r.l., Rigamonti salumificio SPA, Robustellini S.r.l., Skare Meat Packers K/S, Sobsmak Sp. z o.o., Suministros Medina, Van Hees, Van Hessen, Viscofan, WD Meats Ltd, Westaways Sausage, Wiesbauer
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