Articles in this document:

· Collapse of the fragile world trade talks has been averted but progress remains elusive

· Doha Round Extended Until Wednesday

· Harkin: Doha deal easier to pass Congress than FTAs

Collapse of the fragile world trade talks has been averted but progress remains elusive

Irish Times

July 28, 2008

ANALYSIS: Negotiations in pursuit of agreement on pulling down trade barriers are proving tortuous, writes Jamie Smyth

TALKS TO remove global trade barriers are delicately poised with ministers entering a second week of negotiations today over plans to slash tariffs and subsidies in a host of agricultural and industry sectors.

A compromise package presented by World Trade Organisation (WTO) director general Pascal Lamy rescued the talks from imminent collapse late on Friday when seven of the world's biggest trading blocs, agreed to use the plan as the basis for reaching a deal.

Several delegations, including the Irish contingent led by Tánaiste Mary Coughlan, were convinced the talks would break up after four days of fruitless negotiation. But Lamy's intervention, coupled with huge pressure exerted by Brussels and Washington, helped to push even sceptical developing states like India to consider the proposal and work towards an agreement.

The US and EU have been the cheerleaders for the Doha round of talks in the past week, arguing that the downturn in the world economy badly needs the fillip of a WTO deal. In his daily blog on the talks EU trade commissioner Peter Mandelson said yesterday the new trade created from the proposed cuts in tariffs in the compromise proposal would outstrip the result of the 1994 Uruguay deal. If he is correct this would give a huge boost to the economy as Uruguay added between $109 billion and $510 billion to global income.

As the Irish Farmer's Association (IFA) argue personal ambition is also a driving factor for Mandelson, who is expected to step down as EU trade negotiator next year and would be keen to leave a Doha deal as his legacy.

US president George Bush also wants a deal to divert attention from his Iraq policy while Lamy also wants a success before his own position comes up for renewal next year.

The big shift in momentum on Friday though was driven by a split in the position of the big developing countries with Brazil supporting the Lamy compromise while India remained much more sceptical.

"There is no agreement but there are certain areas of concerns, certain areas of consensus," said India's commerce and industry minister Kamal Nath after a five-hour meeting on the Lamy compromise proposal.

But India finally agreed to move ahead with the talks following last-ditch lobbying efforts by President Bush, who telephoned Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh to urge him to make concessions for Doha.

India, which has enjoyed strong economic growth in the last few years, is considered central to a global trade deal because it is a member of the G7 - the seven biggest trading states - and also represents the G33, which represents most of the big developing nations.

Nath has taken the most aggressive stance in the talks, even threatening to walk out at one stage, over concerns that the Lamy proposal does not enable India to adequately protect its agricultural or industrial sectors.

His tough stance has caused consternation among the US trade negotiating team and also among EU states, particularly Germany, which is concerned the compromise deal will enable India to shield its car industry from German imports. It remains to be seen if India can be encouraged to sign up to a deal that could provoke a negative political reaction at home from its farmers and domestic firms.

The Irish delegation, which at one point included four ministers, has expressed concerns about the Lamy proposals' impact on European agriculture, particularly the beef sector. But there is no question that the Government will follow the Irish farmers's advice to reject a compromise text later this week. Tánaiste Mary Coughlan has said no decision on a veto will be made until a final deal is agreed and then placed before all WTO members sometime later this year.

She has also said that the wider interests of the economy must be considered, particularly the benefits that a WTO deal would offer manufacturers and services firms. Services already account for more than 40 per cent of all Irish exports and that figure is growing rapidly.

Most EU states, including Germany, suport the Lamy compromise text with only France publicly attacking the proposal at the weekend. There is also a feeling among many EU delegrations that there is no reason to show their hand while serious problems remain in several strands of the talks.

For example a dispute over the EU's preferential tariff regime for banana imports from former colonies still remains deadlocked. There are also problems with the subsidies the US pays its cotton farmers and the EU is still insisting on legal copyright protection for food products which use place names in their title such as Parma ham. These issues remain to be resolved, so the talks will continue until Wednesday unless they collapse earlier."Tánaiste Mary Coughlan has said no decision on a veto will be made until a deal is agreed

Source: The Irish Times

irishtimes.com

Doha Round Extended Until Wednesday

By Lisa Schlein

VOA News

27 July 2008

Geneva -- The Doha Round of world trade talks has been extended until Wednesday in an effort to save the negotiations from collapse. Some European countries have expressed concerns over proposed concessions they believe will harm their farmers. About 30 trade ministers are trying to wrap up a deal aimed at boosting the world economy. Lisa Schlein reports for VOA from World Trade Organization headquarters in Geneva.

The so-called Doha Development Round has been lurching from one crisis to another during the past seven years. This ministerial level meeting is seen as crucial.

Many analysts believe the round will be dead if a deal does not emerge in the next few days.

Trade ministers are sweating over a proposed settlement, mediated by WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy. The compromises range from caps on farm subsidies to limits on special treatment for developing countries.

Several European countries, notably Italy, France and Ireland, are critical of concessions made by European Union Trade Negotiator Peter Mandelson on farm subsidies. They think the cuts are too deep and will harm their farmers.

Mandelson says these fears are misplaced.

"There is nothing that we are negotiating in this deal that would undermine any part of European agriculture," he said. "The beef industry, like others in European farming, have a strong future. I believe that as a result of this rund, they will be equipped and strong to compete effectively in our European market and I believe that they can look forward to that strong future."

Mandelson says the agreements being discussed would lead to more open markets and trade liberalization, and this will benefit both developed and developing countries.

The proposed settlement calls for cutting European farm subsidies by 80 percent and cutting U.S. agricultural supports by 70 percent to $14.5-billion. The compromise proposal also calls for cuts in tariffs on agricultural imports and on industrial goods.

A number of countries, including the United States, Brazil, Australia and India say they welcome some of the agreements on the table and are hopeful a deal that is good for the global economy is possible.

But WTO spokesman Keith Rockwell says if a deal does not emerge, the ministers might take a break from the negotiations.

"To say that members would be prepared to abandon the sort of work that they have put in here, which is intensive, certainly over the course of the last 12 months. It is not in the nature of negotiators to walk away from the kinds of things that they will have constructed. So, I do not know what would happen," said Rockwell. "But, I would not say that all is lost under any circumstances by the end of this week regardless of what happens."

The trade ministers have a lot of work to do during the next few days. They will have to look at the prospects of liberalizing services such as banking and telecommunications. The outcome of those negotiations will have a bearing on the outcome of the farming and industry talks.

By Wednesday, it will be clear whether governments are willing to make the necessary trade offs to agree on a deal that economists say could boost the world economy by $50 billion a year.

voanews.com

Harkin: Doha deal easier to pass Congress than FTAs

Thursday, July 24, 2008, 4:43 PM

by Peter Shinn

Brownfield

U.S. trade negotiators are in Geneva this week in hopes of achieving a breakthrough in the seven-year-old Doha Round of World Trade Organization (WTO) talks, which are aimed at making it easier to trade all around the globe. But even if a new global trade deal is done, can it make it through Congress?

Three bi-lateral trade deals with Panama, Colombia and South Korea are all awaiting Congressional action. But Senate Ag Committee Chairman Tom Harkin told Brownfield Thursday if a new world trade agreement is fair and balanced, Congress won't let it languish.

"Well, I would think a Doha deal would have a better chance of making it through Congress than these separate, individual trade pacts that they're promoting," Harkin said.

The U.S., Harkin noted, has more to gain from more liberal world trade rules than it does from trade agreements with individual nations. But to get a new global trade deal, the U.S. has offered to reduce spending on trade-distorting farm programs to no more than $15 billion a year. Harkin told reporters that's no problem in this current era of high commodity prices.

But if prices fall and government farm support payments increase, Harkin pointed out the 2008 farm law authorizes the U.S. Ag Secretary to unilaterally cut farm program spending to remain in compliance with WTO rules. And according to Harkin, those cuts could come to some very popular farm programs.

"Things like ACRE [Average Crop Revenue Election] could be affected, you know the ACRE program," Harkin said. "The MILC [Milk Income Loss Contract] program would be, probably, affected under that and probably some others, too."

That's why Harkin insisted the U.S. would be well-advised to shift its farm programs toward support mechanisms that reward conservation and away from those that support ag production in the 2013 farm bill. Harkin conceded a new global trade deal is unlikely to be finalized in time for Congressional action this year, but also said "a lot can happen in September."

Of course, whether or not trade negotiators can reach a deal in the Doha Round at all remains an open question. Reports from the talks in Geneva posted on the WTO's web site Friday suggested large differences remain between various WTO member nations in several important areas.

brownfieldnetwork.com